Buy now or wait? Exchange rate and supply Chain

[jamanjeval]

With Festool being German and Germany looking like it’s going to get hit pretty rough economically from the Russia and Ukraine war, do you think that it would be a good idea to buy tools you want sooner rather than later? Could the tools not only become significantly more expensive but also hard to get?

The exchange rate may become more favorable for the US dollar, but production costs will likely increase due to energy and raw materials not to mention inflation.

What are you doing?

 

[ChuckS]

The question isn't about when to buy, but whether what you want is still available to buy.

As long as it's something nonperishable -- not just woodworking tools -- that you want or need, and the budget is there, get it.

Lee Valley Tools is my go-to store, and for two decades, I had never had issues getting what I wanted until the pandemic arrived. Some items, for example, HEPA filters for shop vacs, simply sold out and never returned while many others have become available only after months of waiting. Luckily, I have pretty much owned all of its premium hand tools that I use.

 

[mino]

Do not count on the USD-EUR rate having any effect. Even if it will change by 20% - which it will not.

There is about 10% inflation already across Europe now, and it will get higher still. The commodities prices are going through the roof.

And when I mean commodities, it is not just oil and natural gas. Prices of stuff like Nickel, Rare Earth metals etc. are off the scales.

I would expect Festool to eat the increased costs and reflect this in the next year price hike. If the currency rate changes signifficantly, it may allow Festool to not raise prices in the US next year. But do not count on them lowering them. Their profitability will already be hit by the Covid supply chain mess. And the ongoing and expected commodities chaos and inflation did not show themselves yet.

What is likely to happen is that the recovering supply chain will get even worse. So prices will not move (Festool will most likely eat the cost increases) but tool availability on the shelves will get even worse. For the next couple yrs. Not months.

 

[rvieceli]

[member=34798]jamanjeval[/member] As Chuck said if you want/need it and have the money available then buying now makes sense. Here's a couple of examples from my experiences:

Last year in June I added a Powermatic 20 inch helical head planer to the shop. It was about $4300 at the warehouse. If i were to buy the same planer today the price has risen to $6000 or an increase of 1700 in 8 months.

I have been looking at a 3x4 foot welding/fabrication table. Metal, cnc'd grid of holes, tight tolerances, within a 3-4 thousands of dead flat. One of the tables I liked also included a set of clamps and stops and other stuff as a starter kit. Most of last year that table was available for around $2000 . In December the price increased to $2600, the price today is $3000, for exactly the same kit.

Increase like these are pretty much across the board. In addition, this has also impacted the used market as well. People are asking and getting higher prices for their equipment. It has also seemed to have an impact on the availability of used equipment as well. Shops seem to be keeping more of their current equipment rather than upgrading and selling. If the stuff is available the prices are higher.

Ron

 

[JFelchlin]

A hobbyist woodworker -
Over the course of many years I’ve bought a complete set of woodworking tools -
Many of them Festool products.
Some… I didn’t need at the exact time I bought ‘em -
But, eventually, they all have gotten into regular use.

I bought ‘em when I did, thinking that their prices would increase -
And they have - Again and again.

Now… Due to supply chain” issues - And other “vagaries” - Some are simply “unavailable”.
Examples:
Sure glad I’ve already got my Festool -
TS-75 Track Saw
Complete Vac-Sys (1 & 2) System - And an extra set of heads.
Seldom used when first bought - They’re “everyday” used tools nowadays.

If the $$’s are available - Buy “What you can - WHEN YOU CAN.
Prices have never gone DOWN. Ever.

 

[ChuckS]

About price increases. As I shared in another thread, I paid $14 Cdn for a crock pot on Amazon three months ago; now the same thing, same brand, same pattern, same size...$24.

I had the osmo oil in my shopping cart, planning to buy it with a few other things. When I did get to the few other things a few days later, the price of the oil had gone up $6 (?) or so!!! [crying]

Having  learned my lesson, I quickly grabbed the bandsaw blade which was out of stock for some time even though I don't need the replacement right away.

 

[Mini Me]

Supply chain costs are about to be hit again due the cost of oil and that affects EVERYTHING. The one I am particularly familiar with is importing cyclones from the US. The price has risen so much it has become impossible to pass on as the market won't tolerate the end retail price and further down the track this year the costs will have risen further. RIP  that business purely from supply chain costs that show no sign of stabilising, rather the opposite actually.

 

[rmwarren]

Besides, it's a great rationale when confronted by the boss/SHMBO "but look at how much I saved!"...  [poke]

RMW

 

[Ebuwan]

Same as mentioned here; not German specific, but i got a Grizzly g0651 in April of 2020. I paid $2,065.00.

That saw now is $2,985.00. Also, it's closer to 2 years ago, but it's been $2,985 for a bit now.

 

[Coen]

Well, they are printing ""money"" all over the world, so ofc things will increase.

Also, resources that were easy to mine were mined first. When you start with a gas well you might need a pressure reducing valve... later on you need a compressor.

So resources become harder to get, while the quantity of humans is exploding at an insane rate..

 

[sancho57]

I buy things when I need/want them.

If ya want it buy it.

PLain and simple

 

[Coen]

Yeah with US-EU shipping costs you can't really cheat sudden exchange rate changes like we did in 2008 when the British pound plummeted in December and everyone from the nearby Eurozone bought all the Nikon stuff from the UK.