Lumber prices are dropping.

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Packard

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In case you have not noticed, lumber prices have been high.  But maybe relief is on the horizon.
https://markets.businessinsider.com...00-plunged-since-may-record-2021-6-1030520545

Lumber prices traded below $1,000 per thousand board feet on Monday for the first time since March.

Lumber futures are now down roughly 40% from a record high set on May 10.

Prices are still up 175% over the past year, and experts say they could remain elevated from historic norms.
 
We are putting a new roof on my mother-in-law's house and were quoted 100/ sheet of 1/2 inch osb. it is now 86/sheet. still hurts.
 
I still refuse to pay 86 for OSB I would have a nice blue tarp before that.  Complete, manipulation and BS I was at hd and lowes yesterday and i cant recall them ever being so well stocked. 
 
RobS888 said:
We are putting a new roof on my mother-in-law's house and were quoted 100/ sheet of 1/2 inch osb. it is now 86/sheet. still hurts.
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Really?! Wow, we had been buying it from mendards because it was cheaper than our lumber yard. Menards by me (west Michigan) right now is $45 for 7/16" and 1/2".
AND THAT IS INSANE! Its just dumb and frustrating constantly re-quoting every freaking thing all the time. I hope it does start going down. Our lumber yards are $5 more a sheet than the box stores, today.
But the box stores hit $65 a sheet for a few weeks because I heard they were slower to change their prices where the lumber yards I think were panic price raising.
I'm ready for a affordable economy again and affordable house pricing or none of us will have new homes going in 6 months, especially if the interest rate does go up.

 
Earlier this year, my GF and I were at HD to pick up some 1/2" plywood. Nothing fancy, just sanded on one side. Heck, I don't even recall the species. Might have been birch. I looked over at OSB and it was well over the price of any nice plywood and that just astounded me. It's utter insanity.
 
The high cost of lumber is adding $24,000.00 (US$) to the price of an average home.
https://nahbnow.com/2021/03/how-rising-lumber-prices-impact-more-than-just-home-builders/

As lumber prices continue to soar, the cost is to build homes is rising with it and pricing many prospective home owners out of the market. The average price of a single-family home has risen more than $24,000, and many clients are having to walk away because they can’t afford the increase. This fast price escalation is having far-reaching consequences throughout the industry, and prohibiting home builders and partner organizations from providing much-needed housing to families across the country.
 
It is just not lumber.  I was in Menards yesterday and noticed 250' of 12-3 electrical cable was over $260, or over $1 a foot.  Price of Copper is through the roof.  PVC fittings are way up.  I cannot think of anything that goes into a house that has gone down in price in the last year. 
 
Packard said:
The high cost of lumber is adding $24,000.00 (US$) to the price of an average home.
https://nahbnow.com/2021/03/how-rising-lumber-prices-impact-more-than-just-home-builders/

As lumber prices continue to soar, the cost is to build homes is rising with it and pricing many prospective home owners out of the market. The average price of a single-family home has risen more than $24,000, and many clients are having to walk away because they can’t afford the increase. This fast price escalation is having far-reaching consequences throughout the industry, and prohibiting home builders and partner organizations from providing much-needed housing to families across the country.
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I would bet its over double that. Our framing material for a 1540sqft ranch went up that much in a year. Add in labor, pvc, copper wire, pex fittings, hvac tin/furnace, shingles/ siding ect ect.

Also talked with my lumber yard salesman about the futures market coming down but he said might be september before we see it coming down.
 
tjbier said:
I would bet its over double that. Our framing material for a 1540sqft ranch went up that much in a year. Add in labor, pvc, copper wire, pex fittings, hvac tin/furnace, shingles/ siding ect ect.

Also talked with my lumber yard salesman about the futures market coming down but he said might be september before we see it coming down.
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The number I saw was closer to $36k.  That's an "average" home, mind you.  In a coastal market, that could be almost double again.

Lumber prices will drop as slowly as gas prices, just like they rose almost as quickly as gas prices.  It galls me that there are retailers locally that started the year OSB stacked in every aisle, nook, cranny, and open square foot of space but still jacked prices as they rose across the country.  I understand supply and demand, but in many cases it was really just people making a quick buck.
 
That's great news. I'm also frustrated at the surplus of supplies I see in-transit and stacked on side of big box stores...

This was a good article with info graphics. All related to transpiration cost, tariffs, and resins. Crazy
 
It doesnt matter they always find a way or a reason to get ya' One day we will have systems like hyperloops, self driving semi's etc. and they will just come up with a different reason.
 
afish said:
It doesnt matter they always find a way or a reason to get ya' One day we will have systems like hyperloops, self driving semi's etc. and they will just come up with a different reason.
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Yeah.  I remember when the utility company was urging home owners to cut back on electric consumption because fuel had gotten so  expensive. Their urgings worked; people reduced their consumption.

Then they petitioned to raise the price of electricity because their sales were off.  (Long Island Lighting Company --LILCO, back in the early 1980s.)
 
Saw a story today over lunch that framing lumber has dropped to $772/bf, down from the peak of $1,733 but still up 60% year-over-year ($448 in June 2020).
 
I just paid, with contractor discount, $86/sheet for ¾” Columbia pre-finished maple Purebond (x25 sheets), $86/sheet for ¾” Columbia pre-finished maple Purebond (x10 sheets), $115 for ¾” Columbia Euro Ply (x5 sheets), and $71 for BB 5/8” 5x5 sheet (x10 sheets). All beautiful quality from a local supplier.
 
3/4" x 4' x 8' nominal MDF is selling for $44.48.

I don't buy MDF often, but is seems to me that it was hovering below $20.00 per sheet a while back.

According to the US producer price index the cost of MDF has only risen 14.99% since last year.  That does not sound right to me.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_p...d_made_from_mdf_produced_at_the_same_location

US Producer Price Index: Reconstituted Wood Product Manufacturing: Medium Density Fiberboard, Made From Mdf Produced at the Same Location is at a current level of 217.80, up from 200.60 last month and up from 189.40 one year ago. This is a change of 8.57% from last month and 14.99% from one year ago.
 
Around here it's 1/4" MDF that's the problem. It was being rationed because of minimal supply, now it's gone. We have a few units in stock, but no more in the near future.
 
Packard said:
afish said:
It doesnt matter they always find a way or a reason to get ya' One day we will have systems like hyperloops, self driving semi's etc. and they will just come up with a different reason.
Click to expand...

Yeah.  I remember when the utility company was urging home owners to cut back on electric consumption because fuel had gotten so  expensive. Their urgings worked; people reduced their consumption.

Then they petitioned to raise the price of electricity because their sales were off.  (Long Island Lighting Company --LILCO, back in the early 1980s.)
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The same geniuses who built a nuclear power plant on Long Island?
 
Michael Kellough said:
Packard said:
afish said:
It doesnt matter they always find a way or a reason to get ya' One day we will have systems like hyperloops, self driving semi's etc. and they will just come up with a different reason.
Click to expand...

Yeah.  I remember when the utility company was urging home owners to cut back on electric consumption because fuel had gotten so  expensive. Their urgings worked; people reduced their consumption.

Then they petitioned to raise the price of electricity because their sales were off.  (Long Island Lighting Company --LILCO, back in the early 1980s.)
Click to expand...

The same geniuses who built a nuclear power plant on Long Island?
Click to expand...
That happened when it was still LILCO (Long Island Lighting Company), a privately held company.  It was later taken over by Nassau and Suffolk counties and changed to LIPA (Long Island Power Authority).  The change in ownership did not appear to lower electric power rates.

According to a Newsday article, LIPA rates are the highest in the Northeast.  So not much improvement.  I no longer live on Long Island, so I have no dog in this fight.
 
About the nuclear plant, after long construction and cost overruns they made a diabolical arrangement to partially bail out the shareholders by continuing construction of the nuke that nobody wanted until it could be turned on for one day (and then permanently shut down) leaving the state of New York on the hook to de-commission the hazardous site.
 
I lived in Port Washinton.  For years the president of Lilco lived in Sands Point (adjacent to Port Washington).  Power outages never lasted more than an hour or two.  For that, I was grateful. 
 
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