US/Canada Lumber Relations

ear3 · Jun 1, 2017

Just got a link to a new article in FDMC about the Canadian government deciding to direct additional funds to their domestic lumber industry in the wake of the US imposing a tariff on Canadian lumber imports:http://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/n...-642-million-firms-hit-us-softwood-lumber-tax

Just curious, has anyone noticed any price shifts (or other consequences) in the last few months in the US that might reflect the new trade realities? I don't traffic in much framing/construction material, which is where I think this would likely have the largest impact.

Pike_101 · Jun 1, 2017

I've seen a 10-20% increase in the prices on #2 Pine and similar products in the past 2-3 months. Looking back at the last three years of business records I show little to no change over that span, so it was stable prior. I do live within 100 miles of the Canadian border, which likely has some impact.

WastedP · Jun 2, 2017

Cedar has been going up since March. Every mill I talked to in the inland NW sources their cedar from British Columbia or Alberta. I had worked out a deal to buy direct from a large mill, and thirty days later they let me know that they would not be milling dimensional cedar until the price of logs dropped. I had to fall back to my regular supplier, which switched THEIR supplier in mid-April. I can't tell you the exact size of the price increase off the top of my head, but I'm paying somewhere between 15%-20% more than I was six months ago.

I bought cantilever racking in February and filled it with several units of 1" exterior ply, as well as a year's supply of 1x6 T&G cedar. Between volume discounts and price increases, the racks are within a few hundred dollars of paying for themselves in just a few months.

I will probably be reordering units of plywood in another 4 to 6 weeks. That should give me a better picture of what's going on with that market locally.

ear3 · Jun 2, 2017

Interesting.

Pike_101 said:
I've seen a 10-20% increase in the prices on #2 Pine and similar products in the past 2-3 months. Looking back at the last three years of business records I show little to no change over that span, so it was stable prior. I do live within 100 miles of the Canadian border, which likely has some impact.

Pike_101 · Jun 2, 2017

Oddly enough, I did not see a price change in cedar the last time I purchased it, which was what I was most concerned about. However, the supplier did not have much stock and I purchased almost all of their remaining 1" dimensional lumber-- this was about two weeks ago. So perhaps they just had not ordered in awhile and I got an old price.

I do own a small sawmill, but rarely is it worth it for me to process spruce/fir/pine. Cedar on the other hand is about even for me, so I stockpile as much good stuff as I can and mill whatever I can find. Finding good cedar is not easy. Otherwise I just mill hardwoods and specialty pieces.

This tariff was certainly a head-scratching move, because I do not see what it was designed to accomplish, short of raising prices for consumers. It has little benefit to U.S. mills/logging, unless they already own hundreds of thousands of acres of stumpage. I have a lot of family in the logging industry too, and we simply don't have the timber resources that existed a century ago that built this region. We may have been doing ourselves a favor by exploiting Canada's resources for cheap.

Holmz · Jun 2, 2017

Pike_101 said:
...
This tariff was certainly a head-scratching move,
...

We have seen a few head scratching moves each week.

A chin scratcher move has the advantage that one can gently push up to prevent that mouth hanging agape. [cool]

Chance Beasley · Jun 2, 2017

Yes. As a homebuilder, I am seeing lumber prices increase very quickly. All the reports are suggesting this to be a new normal for quite a while. A typical lumber package for me is going up around 2-3K per home.

Jaybolishes · Jun 2, 2017

The question is who in the world is this tariff helping? It surely isn't helping builders, homeowners or employers. Maybe it's helping American sawmills but that's a small number of people to help compared to who it's hurting. Canadian lumber is so much better unfortunately. Living in vt we had a very good flow of Canadian wood and this tariff is making builders and just about everyone furious. I'm building an addition and this will affect ultimately how much we spend on other things which hurts the community as well. Smh