Shopmonkey, I've been following Festool offers and sales since 2 years. This is not a long time, but this is what I know. Festool never runs sales across all products, and promotions for new tools never exceed 10%. During the last couple of years, I witnessed two 10% off sales: on Domino + accessories and on sheetrock sanding tool (the name escapes me) + accessories. I also saw 2% to 5% price increases per year (goes in effect in April each year). Festool does not appear to link its promotions to holidays.
Festool pricing and promotions policy is similar to that of Apple. They don't discount their products much, if at all.
Reconditioned tools sales appear to be not predictable (except maybe to Festool employees) and there is no guarantee that a certain tool will be offered. My guess is that they happen twice per year (maybe?) I checked list of reconditioned tools in the recent event which you missed and do not recall seeing Kapex there.
Keep in mind that you do not get the same 3 year warranty with reconditioned tools, and I am not certain if the standard return policy applies.
In other words, good luck finding Kapex on sale.