even MDF is getting a bit pricey?

[mrFinpgh]

I just looked at buying some MDF for some laminate work I'm planning to do.  MDF seems to be working it's way up in price, alongside most other wood products.  So much for building a house out of cross laminated timber anytime in the near future

For those more directly involved in the industry, is there any expectation that in the next year we'll see any kind of decrease in cost as supply increases?

 

[tjbnwi]

I’m not seeing any decreases, my suppliers are not indicating decrease are on the horizon. My estimates are good for 15 days now, my estimates used to be good for 45 days.

I just got 20 sheets of custom laid up 4x8x3/4 maple face one side, MDF exposed opposite side—-$160 a sheet.....

Tom

 

[AlexThePalex]

It never gets any cheaper. And with a global crisis like now, everybody raises their prices. When the crisis is gone, prices will remain.

 

[rvieceli]

A couple of years ago I was routinely paying around $9 for 4x8 sheet of 7/16 OSB those same sheets are now over $32 per sheet.

23/32 Advantech subfloor is now over $53

Ron

 

[HarveyWildes]

In 2004 OSB was going for $6+ at Home Depot.  When I built my house in 2006-7 (housing bubble), it was running $13+.  Then it was back down to $6+ a couple of years later.  The price of construction lumber is related to construction activity which is high now due to COVID work flexibility and super-low interest rates.  I'm thinking that the price of construction will come back down as the economy starts to heat up post-COVID and interest rates go up, but I'm not the best at predicting the economy.

 

[squall_line]

I have a roof repair estimate from the insurance company written last September/October after a massive storm came through town.  I'm not sure the materials prices are anywhere close to accurate any more as we get into spring of this year, but at least the stock is available; our local big box stores have pallets upon pallets of OSB piled all over near the entrance and up and down just about every aisle, along with pallets of shingles.  Labor is almost impossible to come by, too.

 

[tofu]

Everything is up. I'm paying $120 a sheet for 17mm Baltic birch with footballs

Before the pandemic, I was paying $80

 

[AlexThePalex]

I was just at a local supplier for wood and general building supplies here in my city. He told me wood was going to be very scarce next month, because there was a global shortage, and quote: "The americans are buying everything, paying double the normal price".

 

[RustE]

Well, people certainly are paying double for a lot of things.

What I read a few days ago pointed at a few factors affecting wood prices:
- Reduced output from lumber mills in early 2020. Some were nonessential businesses and completely closed for a while.
- Transportation challenges. Truckers are busy moving what people are buying online. Fuel prices are climbing again.
- Low interest rates. Major renovations are more attractive with people spending more time at home.
- Shortage of homes for sale. There are people waiting for the pandemic to calm down before wanting to move.

So, no, I don’t expect wood prices to drop soon. Maybe during the last quarter of 2021 at the earliest.

 

[rst]

When I negotiated to have my 30 x 36 pole building put up last February, I was quoted $24,000.  Steel roof, steel siding, one 42" commercial door opening, one 10' x 9' overhead door opening.  I immediately put $8000.00 down payment and contractor bought materials.  Borough would not approve my Amish contractor's drawings, so I had to dig out my drafting equipment and do some code checking to make acceptable plans to get approved.  In the interim, maybe a month and a half, contractor got busy and covid shutdown started.  Building went up in June/July.  Talked to him recently and was told building would have cost me $36,000 at current pricing.  I sheeted out some of the interior with 1/2" CDX, in the fall, paid around $28.00/ sheet...current box store price is $43.00, actually bought from local lumber yard/mill for $36.00.  Peruvian sanded ply, most beautiful CDX I've ever seen, no voids at all.  I 've been selling commercial steel entrances for 40 years.  The 42"x 84" door and frame I bought for my building would have normally cost me in the $650- $750 range...$1100.00 current price.

 

[Bugsysiegals]

I’m glooming to pickup a piece of 3/4” 4’ x 8’ MDF to redo my 8020 MFT table and it’s about $60 … I want to say this was only $35 a sheet pre-covid but can’t recall. Does anybody remember if these were this cheap and they’re still nearly double the price or were they closer to $45?

 

[Bob D.]

" "The Americans are buying everything, paying double the normal price"."

Yup, it's all our fault. Where is most of that lumber coming from? We have a large expanse of forest areas here in North America. I would think suppliers are going to sell as close to home as possible as shipping costs affects them too. They can probably jack up the price and sell locally (

 

[rmwarren]

Our street has about a dozen and a half homes on it, 1-2 have continually been under renovation, addition or demo and build new for the past 2 years. I think 6 have changed hands in this timeframe. This is typical around town. Everyone I speak to has trouble just getting materials.

For context, we live in a second home town along the New Jersey shore, an hour from Philadelphia and two from north Jersey. 4,000 homes and 8,000 full time residents. Population triples during the summer. We are also, relatively speaking, affordable in the context of barrier islands. Full time population has trended down for the past 2-3 Census, down 25% from 2010-20.

Discovered by North Jersey post-Sandy, the island was overrun in 2020 and there are no signs yet of slowing down. Rather it seems like longtime residents are cashing in, no clue where they are going.

I ran some numbers on mortgage cost impacts with each quarter point increase and my hunch is a lot of people will be unable to qualify for mortgages soon. The change in rates over the past year increased the income needed to qualify for $400K by around $15K annually. If rates get back up to early/mid 2000 levels (pre qualitative easing) it'll require over $100K income to qualify.

Seems to me this has got to start putting the brakes on construction soon [demand], whatever impact that has on material costs given the supply chain challenges [supply].

[attachimg=1]

Or as often happens, I'm totally wrong.

RMW

 

[xedos]

While your actual figures may (or may not) be incorrect - your assessment of housing affordability is spot on.

Which also means the rental market will expand.