Holy crap Batman

[Holzhacker]

At HD today:
3/4 cdx $50.08 a sheet
regular 2x4x8 $6.55
treated 2x4x8 $9.77
roll of #12 $83
roll of #14 $57
and people wonder why bids are so high, its not us getting rich

 

[serge0n]

This is nuts. I'm remodeling my master bedroom and had to pick up a few 2x4x8s couple of weeks ago, they were $5.67 at HD. I'm also in the Chicago area. Two weeks later they want $6.55?!
3/8" CDX was $30!
At least drywall is still priced the same.

 

[rvieceli]

Yup at our local Lowe’s  23/32 Advantech tongue and groove subfloor. $65.38 for 4x8 sheet.

 

[Cheese]

I read an article a few weeks ago and they said the price of building materials is up 30% in the last year. They also mentioned that because of the increase, new housing starts are lower than normal because people are now looking at existing structures instead.

In our neighborhood, (70-120 year old houses) 2 houses were sold without even a For Sale sign being erected. Each went on the market and each sold for over the asking price in 2 days.

 

[rjboch]

Absolutely amazed, but I get should not be surprised, about the volume of home improvements and construction that has occurred over past year. Here in San Diego, new construction is still charging forward, big land deals occurring, and every contractor/trades-person I've chatted with all said they have been crazy busy (e.g., electricians, painters, HVAC, etc.). For existing homes there is super low inventory, double digit (%) price increases, and sales within days of listing and most over-asking. Most co-workers who once considered selling would not dare do it because you would never find a replacement within budget. The local paper recently had a story about people paying 100-200k over-asking even for small condos and many being rejected >10 times on previous offers. Further, from what I read, it is not projected to let up for many years...especially as we come out of this pandemic.

 

[Bob D.]

"At least drywall is still priced the same."

Not in these parts. Drywall is up at least 25% so far this year.

And everything else has creeped up in price too.

 

[Peter_C]

Yeah let me know when they actually start paying similar for the wood coming out of the forest.

 

[Bob D.]

"In our neighborhood, (70-120 year old houses) 2 houses were sold without even a For Sale sign being erected. Each went on the market and each sold for over the asking price in 2 days."

There have been bidding wars on properties in my area. The son of a friend recently sold his house in one day for $20k over his asking price with buyers lined up in the deal fell through. The house across the street from me sold for $10k over ask in late 2019.

The flippers were making a killing in the beginning, but now that existing home values have jumped not so much.

 

[squall_line]

I bought a #2 2x4 x 10' for $9.13 on 3/16/21 (16-03-2021 for our friends in Europe).  Website shows $9.99 today, a 9.4% increase in only 3 weeks.

 

[slackula@gmail.com]

On advice from Festool Financial, I'm putting all my money into wood.

 

[Cheese]

On advice from Festool Financial, I'm putting all my money into wood.

Ya, that’s a move we should have all noticed. But when you’re deep in the weeds...

 

[Peter_C]

On advice from Festool Financial, I'm putting all my money into wood.

Do you wanna buy a tree farm? Or just the wood?

Ya, that’s a move we should have all noticed. But when you’re deep in the weeds...

You spray? Done a lot of spraying myself, including 2 gallons today onto poison oak.

 

[jeh]

Like others I am well aware of the significant increase is lumber and other building materials. Things will come back to earth once demand slows down. Originally the thought was COVID causing reduced production by mills/factories reducing outputs either buy choice or necessity (sick employees). Now it has moved on to the low interest rates, which are coming to and end as they start creeping up. What is amazing to me, as others noted above, that higher bids has not slowed anyone down from overspending. I was planning on starting a new home in April, but have punted until late this year or even next year. Of course there is a balancing act as to overpaying for materials, but ending up with a lower mortgage rate (if borrowing) or waiting for cheaper materials. The bigger concern for me is making sure I won't be staring down overpaying subs to get the work done when I need it done or stretching the build out so far the savings are negated. I also don't want to interrupt a gold rush for everyone knowing that quality might be compromised. I, myself, am stretched to the limit.

On the upside I have never been so careful about ordering materials and having the least amount of scrap material. Of course what would have been tossed is being saved now so that is another problem.

 

[squall_line]

We had an inland hurricane blow through Iowa in August, 2020.  Contractors are backed up beyond belief on top of the low-interest pressure.

Local big box stores have pallets upon pallets of OSB and shingles stacked anywhere that they can put them, anticipating all of the roofing work that is still to come.  The employees are frustrated that corporate won't stop sending material, and I understand both sides of it.

I called a reconstruction/restoration company last week to try to get a quote on my roof (seven 2x6 x 20' rafters, plus OSB, plus R&R the rest of the shingles to maintain cohesive appearance), they told me labor isn't available until November, and they aren't writing any quotes for work that starts more than 30 days out because material prices won't stop going up.

Of course, if the OSB is already on-site at the store and has been there for over 90 days, and isn't in any danger of running out, I wonder why prices need to double...

 

[Tom the Remodeler]

For those who think prices will eventually return to what they were in the Before Times, all indications that I'm getting point to prices staying "high" for the foreseeable future.

From what I'm hearing, prior to Spring 2020 prices were unreasonably low, and we saw a number of saw mills and lumber yards close shop due to razor-thin margins (as I understand it).

In the present times, most of my suppliers are honoring their quotes for 7-14 days, with no guarantees on inventory or delivery dates. One local hardwood seller was telling me the other day that (at some unspecified time in the past) that their price on White Oak had remained static for 5 years. In the last three months, they've had to bump the price $0.20/bd-ft every week to cover replacement costs, with no end in sight. It's my understanding that softwood lumber wholesale pricing has doubled in the last three months.

A real-world example of this would be my friend's addition. I helped him build the addition in 2018. Once the space was completed, his insurance agency determined the replacement cost was in the ~$350K range. Earlier this Spring, his insurance carrier sent him a notice that they've revised the replacement cost to ~$700K+, based on current market costs of labor and materials.

Looking forward, my interpretation of the tea leaves is that we might see prices fall ~10-20% in the next 2-5 years, but I doubt we'll ever return to Before Times pricing. It's the cost of doing business, builders and customers need to adapt.

Shannon covered part of this in detail (specifically, hardwoods) in one of his recent podcasts:https://www.lumberupdate.com/45-covid-hardwood-impact/ (0:00-23:00).

For myself, I'm giving customers estimates based on current market conditions, with the caveat that I will not give a firm bid until 30 days prior to start of work, and even then, that pricing may be fluid depending on how big the job is (if it's a big job, trim/millwork will be nailed-down ~2 weeks prior to ordering)...

 

[squall_line]

For those who think prices will eventually return to what they were in the Before Times, all indications that I'm getting point to prices staying "high" for the foreseeable future.

From what I'm hearing, prior to Spring 2020 prices were unreasonably low, and we saw a number of saw mills and lumber yards close shop due to razor-thin margins (as I understand it).

In the present times, most of my suppliers are honoring their quotes for 7-14 days, with no guarantees on inventory or delivery dates. One local hardwood seller was telling me the other day that (at some unspecified time in the past) that their price on White Oak had remained static for 5 years. In the last three months, they've had to bump the price $0.20/bd-ft every week to cover replacement costs, with no end in sight. It's my understanding that softwood lumber wholesale pricing has doubled in the last three months.

A real-world example of this would be my friend's addition. I helped him build the addition in 2018. Once the space was completed, his insurance agency determined the replacement cost was in the ~$350K range. Earlier this Spring, his insurance carrier sent him a notice that they've revised the replacement cost to ~$700K+, based on current market costs of labor and materials.

Looking forward, my interpretation of the tea leaves is that we might see prices fall ~10-20% in the next 2-5 years, but I doubt we'll ever return to Before Times pricing. It's the cost of doing business, builders and customers need to adapt.

Shannon covered part of this in detail (specifically, hardwoods) in one of his recent podcasts:https://www.lumberupdate.com/45-covid-hardwood-impact/ (0:00-23:00).

For myself, I'm giving customers estimates based on current market conditions, with the caveat that I will not give a firm bid until 30 days prior to start of work, and even then, that pricing may be fluid depending on how big the job is (if it's a big job, trim/millwork will be nailed-down ~2 weeks prior to ordering)...

So you're saying I should mill up the 30"-dia ash and 24"-dia maple that are lying in my backyard and just patiently air dry them to maximize my profits?

It's not a comfortable time to be a consumer; regardless of the sticker shock of price increases, it's hard to hear "I can only guarantee this price for the next week, the final bill will likely be much higher after all of the work is done."

I completely understand it, but it doesn't make it any more comfortable to hear.

 

[Jeff Zanin]

A couple of weks ago I bought 4x8x18mm GIS plywood, it was C$87 per sheet  [crying]  Thankfully I only needed three sheets.

It was the only suitable material available at my local HD, and it was stamped "Made in Chile" which may have explained some of the $87.

Nothing wrong with Chile but this is Canada, I would have thought if nothing else we could produce our own plywood.  Apparently not.

 

[Tom the Remodeler]

For those who think prices will eventually return to what they were in the Before Times, all indications that I'm getting point to prices staying "high" for the foreseeable future.

From what I'm hearing, prior to Spring 2020 prices were unreasonably low, and we saw a number of saw mills and lumber yards close shop due to razor-thin margins (as I understand it).

In the present times, most of my suppliers are honoring their quotes for 7-14 days, with no guarantees on inventory or delivery dates. One local hardwood seller was telling me the other day that (at some unspecified time in the past) that their price on White Oak had remained static for 5 years. In the last three months, they've had to bump the price $0.20/bd-ft every week to cover replacement costs, with no end in sight. It's my understanding that softwood lumber wholesale pricing has doubled in the last three months.

A real-world example of this would be my friend's addition. I helped him build the addition in 2018. Once the space was completed, his insurance agency determined the replacement cost was in the ~$350K range. Earlier this Spring, his insurance carrier sent him a notice that they've revised the replacement cost to ~$700K+, based on current market costs of labor and materials.

Looking forward, my interpretation of the tea leaves is that we might see prices fall ~10-20% in the next 2-5 years, but I doubt we'll ever return to Before Times pricing. It's the cost of doing business, builders and customers need to adapt.

Shannon covered part of this in detail (specifically, hardwoods) in one of his recent podcasts:https://www.lumberupdate.com/45-covid-hardwood-impact/ (0:00-23:00).

For myself, I'm giving customers estimates based on current market conditions, with the caveat that I will not give a firm bid until 30 days prior to start of work, and even then, that pricing may be fluid depending on how big the job is (if it's a big job, trim/millwork will be nailed-down ~2 weeks prior to ordering)...

So you're saying I should mill up the 30"-dia ash and 24"-dia maple that are lying in my backyard and just patiently air dry them to maximize my profits?

It's not a comfortable time to be a consumer; regardless of the sticker shock of price increases, it's hard to hear "I can only guarantee this price for the next week, the final bill will likely be much higher after all of the work is done."

I completely understand it, but it doesn't make it any more comfortable to hear.

I can absolutely empathize with you. I'm in the midst of planning a studio space for woodworking, and the material pricing has definitely pushed my timeline out several years.

Speaking for myself as a contractor, it's just really challenging to quote pricing on a project I won't get to for 6-8 months. I am usually able to commit to my labor pricing, but for material costs I'm having to work really hard on explaining the current market and manage expectations regarding where prices are going.....

 

[Peter_C]

Nothing wrong with Chile but this is Canada, I would have thought if nothing else we could produce our own plywood.  Apparently not.

Interesting. The last time sustainable logging in the USA was really profitable was when Clinton placed a tariff on Canadian wood products. Canada has more wood than they know what to do with, and subsidies from the Canadian government mean they are cheaper than USA products and we do get subsidies here for thinning etc.https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...aae-a372-677106545619/?utm_term=.9ad99c758557

A lot of wood is also owned by China. They are literally buying the forests in the USA. China subsidizes the wood in hopes the US mills will falter, and that is exactly what is happening. Our local Boise Cascade stud mill closed, along with a bunch of others.

Japan bought the local grain mills and 100% is shipped to Japan. They cut the middle man out. Expect to see more foreign land invests in countries with significant farm land.

 

[rjboch]

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board had a small piece on increasing costs of homes and lumber yesterday titled "Why Are Home Prices Soaring?". They identified portion of increase in USA is due to tariffs placed on Canadian lumber in 2017.