rmwarren
Member
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2010
- Messages
- 3,063
I am interested in learning what folks here expect for the future, i.e. politics aside and based on your own business do you expect to see near/mid-term business improvement or not, and what leads you to feel the way you do? ??? ??? ???
To kick things off, construction is ancillary to my livelihood, which is selling and leasing commercial properties throughout North America. I work with corporations and entrepreneurs, and while my own business is stable/ improving (i.e. I see more transactions happening) it is not seem to be rooted in general improvements to my client's business conditions. My business peaked in 2007 following 10-years of business growth, dropped by 80% in 2008 and I have not climbed back to 50% of the 2007 level since then. This is not a complaint, I am making a living and my family is healthy and secure, we are just much more frugal.
What I mainly see are businesses making shorter term commitments and mostly when they are forced to, such as when a lease is expiring they may move if they can lease/buy a better building for the same or less $$ than they currently pay. I rarely see businesses making commitments that are due to their business growing organically or expanding. In most cases businesses still won't commit for more than 3-5 years because of uncertainty.
Since I read the news none of this is really surprising but I am really interested in what others are seeing out there, and especially the conclusions they draw from it.
My crystal ball tells me that we are in for an extended period of stagnant growth and, for a lot of people, lowered expectations for their own lifestyle. It looks like a viscous cycle; since my family is spending more cautiously the businesses we patronize are not growing, etc. I looks to be a difficult cycle to break out of. [unsure] Again, I am not lamenting that business is down from the peak, rather I am looking for indicators of where things are headed.
What does your crystal ball tell you?
To kick things off, construction is ancillary to my livelihood, which is selling and leasing commercial properties throughout North America. I work with corporations and entrepreneurs, and while my own business is stable/ improving (i.e. I see more transactions happening) it is not seem to be rooted in general improvements to my client's business conditions. My business peaked in 2007 following 10-years of business growth, dropped by 80% in 2008 and I have not climbed back to 50% of the 2007 level since then. This is not a complaint, I am making a living and my family is healthy and secure, we are just much more frugal.
What I mainly see are businesses making shorter term commitments and mostly when they are forced to, such as when a lease is expiring they may move if they can lease/buy a better building for the same or less $$ than they currently pay. I rarely see businesses making commitments that are due to their business growing organically or expanding. In most cases businesses still won't commit for more than 3-5 years because of uncertainty.
Since I read the news none of this is really surprising but I am really interested in what others are seeing out there, and especially the conclusions they draw from it.
My crystal ball tells me that we are in for an extended period of stagnant growth and, for a lot of people, lowered expectations for their own lifestyle. It looks like a viscous cycle; since my family is spending more cautiously the businesses we patronize are not growing, etc. I looks to be a difficult cycle to break out of. [unsure] Again, I am not lamenting that business is down from the peak, rather I am looking for indicators of where things are headed.
What does your crystal ball tell you?