Rather than trying to do a pure mathematical proof, I wrote a program that would calculate the error from the Kapex formula, and more generally, from the advice that you should correct your fence according to the difference in lengths of your off cut piece.
For example, suppose your setup was a full 10 degrees off. Let's suppose your off cut length is 500 mm, and your fence is also 500 mm. The difference between the top and bottom of your off cut pieces would be 371 mm. The common rule tells you to move your fence 371 mm/ 4, or roughly 93 mm. You should actually only move it 87 mm. (sin(10) * 500 mm.) The rule is off by 5 mm.
My example is obviously absurd. If your setup was a full degrees off, the resulting off cut would not fit between calipers. I only used it to explain what I mean by error.
Practically speaking, the rule produces no error. I have done dozens of tests, and the maximum difference I got between the top and bottom of my off cut was 2 mm, less than .1 degrees off. At this small angle, there is no difference between what you really need to move the fence, and what the general rule tells you--or at least no difference to a thousandths of a millimeter. In fact, if your difference between the top and bottom were a full 13 mm (about 1/2 a degree), you would still see no difference in the true measure and the approximation. At a full degree, the error from the test is 5 hundredths of a millimeter; but at a full degree, the difference between top and bottom is over 30 mm for the off cut, so it is unlikely you will ever see this in the shop.